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Martin: Akira Watanabe of Olympus recently said:

“Twelve megapixels is, I think, enough for covering most applications most customers need,”

I think he may have a point on this. We reached the point where the pictures are big enough to produce great images with the main side effect being huge files. I won’t pretend to fully understand all the working of a digital camera, but it seems to me that the quality of the sensor and the optics that deliver light to it have been neglected in favour of putting a bigger number on the box. Do you agree with this or do you think we will see 39 Mega pixel webcams in the near future?

Thomas: I think we will *see* a 39 megapixel camera but I really doubt we’ll get any significant gain from it. You’re exactly right with what you say about the size and quality of the CCD sensor and lenses used, they can make a huge amount of difference. Anyone who’s ever experimented with pinhole photography knows that the biggest factor in making a good camera has always been getting as much light as possible on to the film, it’s easier to deal with to much light (shorter exposure time) than with too little. That’s why pro level camera’s are much bigger units with bigger lenses, to let in as much light as possible. Watanabe was specifically referring to consumer level point and shoot cameras, which by definition need a small footprint so they can slip discretely into a pocket. This limits the physical size of the lens and CCD used, and therefore also the amount of light that can get into the box. CCD’s are a bit more versatile than old fashioned film, and if you’re not getting enough light on the sensor you can increase the ‘gain’ on the pixels, making them brighter. This works up to a point but they you’ll start to get pixels flickering to full brightness red, green and blue, which can really spoil a picture! Try it with you camera, take a photo in a dark room (with no flash!) and zoom in on the results. not pretty, is it? More pixels will ultimately mean more ‘noise’ for point and shoot, and I think this is what Watanabe is predicting.

However, I can’t see image quality stopping the efforts of some of the less ‘traditional’ camera manufacturers….

Martin:One of the annoying things about cameras is that you never have it with you when you really need it. Camera phones are getting better and better all the time. What if the phone camera becomes as good as the average compact camera? You may as well have a decent camera phone and dump your compact.

I think that cameras will fragment into two distinct categories. The camera that is built into your phone/convergence device and SLR type cameras for serious photography. Think about it, if your going somewhere you know you will want to take lots of good photos you take the SLR, if you are going about your day to day life you have a reasonable camera with you all the time anyway. Many low end SLR’s are quite affordable and small now, the latest Prosumer cameras are even more accessible for getting good quality pictures.

As SLR’s get cheaper and camera phones get better I reckon we will see the almost complete disappearance of the compact camera. In the same way as music systems seem to be splitting into high end audiophile equipment and iPod docks.

Do you think this is likely? What about other camera technologies such as geotagging?

Thomas: The only thing holding back camera phones is some decent optics! The CCD’s are cheap and 5+ megapixels in a phone is becoming the norm (although maybe not at Cupertino!), but the image is always inferior to that of a half decent compact because the optics are limited to a fixed focus. motorized zoom and focus all take up space and make the camera too thick, the only way around this I can imagine would be to use a mirror to flip the light path through 90 degrees and have the optics down the length or width of the phone. That sounds like it would cost more money and add more complication and distortion with the mirror. As phones get better cameras I’m sure they will all but replace the compact camera, with prosumer and DSLR’s filling in the gaps for more demanding consumers.

Geotagging sounds like a great feature to have, what I’d really like is a camera with both GPS and a magnetometer. Imagine loading your photos into iPhoto after a holiday, and having not only the exact location plotted on Google Earth, but also the direction, field of view and time of day. Now imagine everyone having one of these and all the photo’s being uploaded to Flikr. Next, imagine what Photosynth could do with all that information. Instant Streetview map of the world!